Preview: Shelby 427 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway

I'm sick, so I'm just going to give you predictions. This is what happens when a one-man show gets sick. Enjoy the races this weekend!

1. #17 - Matt Kenseth
2. #31 - Jeff Burton
3. #48 - Jimmie Johnson
4. #16 - Greg Biffle
5. #99 - Carl Edwards
6. #11 - Denny Hamlin
7. #14 - Tony Stewart
8. #24 - Jeff Gordon
9. #29 - Kevin Harvick
10. #2 - Kurt Busch

Lap Leader: #18 - Kyle Busch
Pole Sitter: #99 - Carl Edwards

Dark Horses

• #6 - David Ragan
• #33 - Clint Bowyer
• #26 - Jamie McMurray

if you're questioning my thinking go ahead and e-mail me and I'll give you reasons. Things should be back to normal next week.

In The Rearview: The Auto Club 500

I'd have to say this was a typical California race: BORING! I don't understand why "The Rock" lost it's date to Auto Club Speedway (I do, from a business standpoint, but regardless...). It is just annoying every year they come here twice when neither race is a sell-out. So. Cal needs one race. That is all they've showed they deserve, at most, is one race.
Matt Kenseth won this event, becoming just the fourth driver to win the opening 2 races of the season. If he can clinch the victory at Las Vegas this weekend, he'll become the first driver to win the first three.
Other Points of Note:

• Kevin Harvick blew a tire and engine (one caused the other), thus ending his [modern-era] record stretching of 81 consecutive races without a DNF. He know hands the torch over to his teammate, Clint Bowyer who has been running at the finish for 75 consecutive races.
• Harvick's crash was the only caution for a wreck.
• Hendrick Motorsports drivers Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Mark Martin both failed out of the race due to engine problems. The other 2 HMS drivers and the Stewart-Haas teams' engines held up ok, even though those motors had the same faulty parts.
  

Boring races are always hard to comment on. So that's my take for this week, although it is brief.

Preview: Auto Club 500

The Auto Club 500 at California is usually one of my lesser favorite races. It should be fairly uneventful, but you never know, one of the best assets of NASCAR. Here are my predictions for this weekend's race.

1. 48 - Jimmie Johnson (Chevrolet) - He's always been strong here and it's the defending Champ's home track.
   
2. 18 - Kyle Busch (Toyota) - Kyle did great here last year. If he's going to have another year like last year, look for him to run up front Sunday.
   
3. 24 - Jeff Gordon (C) - Another home-stater; historically the 24 team is a contender here. Gordon could easily snap his winless streak at this 2-mile oval.
   
4. 17 - Matt Kenseth (Ford) - Momentum from the Daytona 500 win and a historical skew for Roush and Ford make Kenseth a strong choice.
   
5. 99 - Carl Edwards (F) - Again, Roush, Ford California, and he's the defending race winner.
   
6. 26 - Jamie McMurray (F) - Rouh-Fenway. Ford. Reunited with Wingo and he had a great race at Daytona if not for Dale Jr.
   
7. 29 - Kevin Harvick (C) - Harvick is also a California native. Historically he averages a 17.9 finishing position, but RCR has really stepped up lately.
   
8. 6 - David Ragan (F) - Roush. Ford. Plus, Ragan has really improved, in 4 starts Ragan has an average finish of 13.8.
   
9. 14 - Tony Stewart (C) - Stewart is strong and back in a Chevrolet, if Goodyear doesn't ruin his chances he should be contending for a win.
   
10. 33 - Clint Bowyer (C) - Bowyer has an average finish of 12, but with new crew chief Shane Wilson a win is possible. The 33 Cheerios/Hamburger-Helper Chevy should be a strong top-15 car at least.
    

Dark Horses

• 16 - Greg Biffle - Roush, but I just have a hunch he may not be as strong as the last two years.
  
• 39 - Ryan Newman - This guy is back! I think he could surprise a few people and maybe contend for the win.
  
• 88 - Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - He won Michigan last year and this track is very similar. If he doesn't wreck everyone look for him to be in the top-half of the field for most the day.
  

Pole Qualifier: 18 - Kyle Busch (T)
Lap Leader: 99- Carl Edwards (F)

In The Rearview: Daytona 500

The season opening race was one that was entertaining to watch, yet it was not without controversy. Two notes that should be looked at for sure.
First off though, let's take a look back. Martin Truex, Jr. Sat on the pole but only led a few laps. Kyle Busch (18 M&Ms Toyota) was the day's lap leader, he finished 41st. No, there were not catastrophic engine failures or blown tires for the Joe Gibbs Racing driver, just NASCAR's Favorite Son.
Matt Kenseth ended up being declared the winner after the race was shortened by 48 laps for rain. Kevin Harvick finished second, A.J. Allmendinger third, Clint Bowyer fourth and Elliott Sadler fifth.

Controversy No. 1: "The Big One" and "Little E"
This wasn't the typical wreck that is usually caused in the middle pack mayhem that goes on. This was in conjunction with the leaders. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. had two very poor pit mistakes that put him a lap down. At one point he drove past his pit stall; the next round of pit stops the right front tire was on the pit-box line, that is declared out of bounds. The NASCAR official working his pit pointed that out, the crew pitted the car anyway, causing the official to asses a one-lap penalty.
On the next restart, the #88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet was the second car one lap down, behind Brian Vickers in the #83 Red Bull Toyota. After the cars got up to speed, Dale Jr got a small run, Vickers pushed his Toyota down to the double-yellow line and the Amp Chevy below it. Instead of blending in to line, Dale seemingly took his frustrations out and came across the bumper of Vickers not once, but twice. Immediately the announcers all agreed "that was wrong". Darrell Waltrip even said "I don't care who you are". Later in the broadcast though, they seemed to show a bit more sympathy. I don't know how or why , but it was intentional. I don't care what Earnhardt, Jr. says that was intentional. It took out ten cars, including contenders like Kyle Busch and Jamie McMurray. "All of this uncalled for with 75 laps to go in this race" - Larry McRenolyds. The block may have been unnecessary, but what was horribly wrong was the wrecking of the leaders. Where was the penalty? No penalty was assessed for "reckless driving" not one lap, no heading to the back. Nothing. That is a disgrace to the sport, I usually don't call the usual 'conspiracy' alert like many do, but this was just down right stupid. Dale Jr. you had ought to be ashamed of yourself. In a sport emphasizing safety, the consistency was lacking on Sunday.

Controversy #2: Rain, Rain, we'll go away.
Earlier I quoted Larry McReynolds at that point it was 75 laps to go. However part of the reason the big one occurred had to be with looming storms moving across the state of Florida. The Race finished after 152 laps, caution coming on lap 148. So the race was official per NASCAR Rules. What I don't like is that by the time Matt Kenseth made it to Gatorade Victory Lane, the rain had ceased. Now drying the track would have been a different story, but usually there is a waiting-out period. I have no problem with Kenseth winning, but I don't know why they didn't wait even an hour to call the race. Contributing to this problem is the later start time for "The Great American Race". Over the last few years the start time gets later and later due in part to the rise of West-Coast fans. Florida is notorious for late-afternoon thunderstorms that come in from the gulf. If the start time would go back to being a more day-centered race it would be nice. Regardless, congratulations to Matt Kenseth and the #17 Roush-Fenway Racing DeWalt Ford Fusion team.

DAYTONA 500 Predictions

Here they are. My predictions for the top ten for the 51st running of the Great American Race.

1. Jeff Gordon - I think this is his year and he's already proved he has a strong car.
2. Kevin Harvick - He's really grown to be a great super-speedway racer. I think he could certainly be a threat to win the 500 again.
3. Mark Martin - More Hendrick power here. I think he'll be in the lead often, but I don't know if he can actually tie this one down.
4. Clint Bowyer - The Kansas native seems to have learned quickly from his teammates and after the Nationwide race should really prove to be a threat.
5. Dale Earnhardt, JR - You can't ever count out this guy on a Super-Speedway, especially boasting Hendrick horsepower.
6. Jamie McMurray - He's won here under the lights and although he may be an underdog, I expect him to be strong if he can stay out of trouble.
7. David Ragan - With all the improvement he showed last season, he very well may start this season off strong.
8. Kyle Busch - He's daring and doesn't mind putting his car in places others won't go. Problem is this is a double-edged sword at Daytona.
9. Tony Stewart will have to fight from the back after moving to a back-up, regardless, the man knows the way around The World Center of Racing.
10. Carl Edwards - Roush-Fenway has been OK on Super-Speedways as of late, if not Edwards then Biffle.

Dark Horses:

• Casey Mears - The 07 team knows what to do. Mears has plenty of experience but no results to show for it. Assuming he can dodge the mis-haps look for him to challenge for a top-5 position.
• Jeff Burton - Although he may not be aggressive enough to really dominate a race like this, the skillful veteran could definitely be left standing at the end to challenge for a win
• Bill Elliott - Great car, great experience. Sounds like the possibility of a win to me.
• Michael Waltrip - This is someone who knows this Florida speedway very well. Toyota has the horsepower, but Waltrip may or may not have the talent left in him.
• Brian Vickers - his lone Cup win came at Talladega, He's matured as a driver since then and with Team Red Bull his chances this season of being in contention for many races are quite high.

Those are my picks - take 'em or leave 'em. I hope to have a podcast of these types of things up and running by the All Star race. Thanks for reading. Come back Tuesday for a review of the 2009 Daytona 500.
- DT

2009 Season Preview

There seems to be a lot of speculation that NASCAR will have trouble fighting through these tough economic times. There also seem to be a lot of "sure things" to happen, but fans don't seem like they're expecting any change.

No one can deny that many companies are finding ways to cut budgets, including sponsorships. However, there is evidence of growth.

Jeremy Mayfield just qualified as an owner/driver for this year's Daytona 500. With all the good things though, there will be at least one race that either 1) only 43 cars show up to race and/or b) less than a full field show up.

This won't be an easy year for NASCAR by any means, but there will be opportunities for several people to get a foot in the door that otherwise wouldn't have.

As far as winning and the Chase for the Cup are concerned, I think that victory lane will be more diversified. I imagine that Tony Stewart will win multiple races and that Kevin Harvick, Ryan Newman, and Jeff Gordon will garner wins to break their respective droughts.

It may be early, but I don't think that necessarily means it's impossible to tell who's going to finish where. My stance has been to try to be different and take these things from a different perspective.

So, without further ado, here's how the Chase will finish:

1. 24 Jeff Gordon will find victory again and finally get that elusive fifth championship. Johnson will have to move by the wayside; the wonderboy of yesterday is going to be back in a strong way with a bold new paint scheme.
2. 29 Kevin Harvick has already started this year off strong by winning the Budweiser Shootout. Happy's key to victory and a strong points finish is to extend his DNF-free streak while capturing more wins.
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3. 33 Clint Bowyer: This may be a 'bold' prediction considering one-third of the media professionals in NASCAR SCENE's Feb. 5 issue said Bowyer and his new team will miss the Chase. I'd like to nominate Bowyer as one of the most underrated drivers in the sport. A crew chief change may be what he needed to be able to truly contend weekly.
4. 48 Jimmie Johnson: Everyone is going to put a target on this team's TV Panel. A record-tying three championships in a row is one thing, but this Hendrick team won't be able to cement a record with four in a row this year.
   
5. 6 David Ragan: Although he ran into trouble in the Bud Shootout, this team really turned the power up at the end of the '08 season. Look for Ragan to grab his first win and be in contention at several tracks in 2009.
6. 5 Mark Martin: He is the greatest driver to never win a championship; unfortunately for Martin, I don't see him losing that title. Martin will most likely elude retirement after a roller-coaster season and give it one more "one last shot."
   
7. 99 Carl Edwards: Although he was strong last year and seems to be the favorite this year, I just don't see Edwards winning the Chase. He's racing full-time in the Nationwide Series again, and if he could step away from that, I think he'd be a serious threat.
8. 14 Tony Stewart: There is a reason that "Smoke" left a long partnership with the Gibbs team. This Stewart-Haas team will win at least three races in 2009 and be a title contender until the waning weeks.
9. 16 Greg Biffle: Although I believe the 3M team is a Championship caliber team, I think Biffle will be on the downside of what has seemed to be a roller-coaster Sprint Cup career.
10. 18 Kyle Busch: He's a strong and smart driver. I hate to admit it, but there is so much talent flowing out of this guy, he'll be contending for wins for a time to come. Again though, I don't think he can match the success he had last year.
11. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Popular is one thing 'Junior' is, however, so is "overrated." He's a strong driver but still won't be contending for a championship until he breaks family ties and gets a different crew chief. Sorry, "Junior Nation."
12. 31 Jeff Burton: Consistency, Consistency, Consistency. Unfortunately a lack of wins may keep the Caterpillar Chevy team from being true title contenders this year. He'll make the Chase but probably won't be a strong contender.
    
13. 83 Brian Vickers: No, Vickers probably isn't the driver you expected to see here, but he's been quietly making progress with the Red Bull Racing team. Next season, he may be able to contend for the title. Look for the youngest Nationwide Champion to mark down at least one "W" this season.

Others to keep an eye on:

• 1 Martin Truex Jr.: I'm not sure where he'll be for the 2010 season, but unless he has a strong showing with EGR, expect him to be picked up by a better team. Perhaps Stewart-Haas would pick up a third car.
• 26 Jamie McMurray: I think he could actually challenge to make the Chase, especially after reuniting with Donnie Wingo. He has to really perform this season if he doesn't want to be the man to move to Yates Racing.
• 07 Casey Mears: This team has had a history of success and Gil Martin works well with drivers needing a boost. Expect to see Mears in victory lane in 2009 and have a solid points finish inside the top 15. In 2010 this team could be a serious threat.
• 11 Denny Hamlin: Ever since is phenomenal rookie season, Hamlin will always be looked at as a possible contender.
• 39 Ryan Newman: I think the new driver for the U.S. ARMY may be in a place that compliments his driving style. He too could challenge for a Chase berth.

Not so serious contenders: Kasey Kahne, Juan Pablo Montoya, David Reutimann and Bobby Labonte could all easily be contenders. I think this year will have a very hard-fought points race throughout the entire season. 2009 looks to be a great year.

Age seems to be a popular issue this year with Mark Martin, 50, and Joey Logano, 18, both being expected to make a lot of noise. However, Logano will struggle as he gets acclimated to the high-pressure, high-stakes world that is the NASCAR Sprint cup.

Scott Speed will win Rookie honors. I don't think many are even considering someone else to be better than Logano, but Speed seems to be very promising, where Logano got off to a rocky start last season.

2009 Season Catch-Up (For Reference)

Welcome to 2009! I hope to be more on the ball this year (not off to a great start) but still continue to provide a unique prospective on the world of NASCAR Racing!
Before the Gatorade Duels I will have up my predictions for the final season standings and my Daytona 500 predictions. Before all that begins I'm going to list the mergers that happened and all the driver/sponsor/etc. shifts that also occurred.

Stewart-Haas Racing (Chevrolet)
- #14 Tony Stewart
*Old Spice/ Office Depot, Burger King
- #39 Ryan Newman
* U.S. Army

Richard Childress Racing (Chevrolet)
- #29 Kevin Harvick
* Shell/Pennzoil
- #33 Clint Bowyer
* General Mills
- #31 Jeff Burton
* Caterpiller
- #07 Casey Mears
* Jack Daniel's

Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet)
- #5 Mark Martin
* Kellogg's
- #25 Brad Keselowski (Part Time)
* Delphi
- #24 Jeff Gordon
* DuPont
- #48 Jimmie Johnson
* Lowe's
- #88 Dale Earnhardt, JR.
* AMP Energy Drink/Mountain Dew

Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota)
- #20 Joey Logano
* The Home Depot
- #18 Kyle Busch
* M&Ms/Mars
- #11 Denny Hamlin
* FedEX

Yates Racing Allied with Hall of Fame Racing (Ford)
- #98 Paul Menard
* Menard's
- #96 Bobby Labonte
* Ask.com
- #28 Travis Kvapil
* MANY (Single race sponsors)

Michael Waltrip Racing Allied with JTG-Daugherty Racing (Toyota)
- #00 David Reutimann
* Aaron's Rentals
- #47 Marcos Ambrose
* Little Debbies
- #55 Michael Waltrip
* NAPA Auto Parts

Earnhardt Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates and Technical alliance with Front Row Motorsports (Chevrolet)
Dale Earnhardt INC. merged with Chip Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates
- #8 Aric Almirola
*Activision/Guitar Hero (Not likely for full season)
- #1 Martin Truex, Jr.
* Bass Pro Shops
- #42 Juan Pablo Montoya
* Target
- #34 John Andretti
* Window World

Tommy Baldwin Racing (Toyota)
- #36 Scott Riggs
* No Primary Sponsor as of 2/10

Mayfield Motorsports (Toyota)
- #41 Jeremy Mayfield
* All Sport

RedBull Racing (Toyota)
- #82 Scott Speed
* Red Bull Energy Drinks
- #83 Brian Vickers
* Red Bull Energy Drinks

Penske Championship Racing (Dodge)
Penske Racing South gave Bill Davis minority ownership for owner's points
- #12 David Stremme
* Verizon Wireless
(SPECIAL NOTE: Verizon logos will not appear on car, but the pain scheme is Verizon-esque. This is due to the buyout of Alltel. Stremme will run a Nationwide car sponsored with logos in that series)
- #2 Kurt Busch
* Miller Lite
- #77 Sam Hornish, JR.
* Mobil 1/AAA


Richard Petty Motorsports (Dodge)
Petty Enterprises merged into Gillette-Evernham Motorsports (Ray Evernham reduced role to consultant approx. 10% ownership)
- #44 AJ Allmendinger
* Valvoline
- #43 Reed Sorenson
* McDonald's
- #9 Kasey Kahne
* Budweiser
- #19 Elliot Sadler
* Best Buy

Roush-Fenway Racing (Ford)
- #6 David Ragan
* UPS
- #16 Greg Biffle
* 3M
- #17 Matt Kenseth
* DeWalt
- #26 Jamie McMurray
* Crown Royal
- #99 Carl Edwards
* Aflac Insurance

Robby Gordon Motorsports (Toyota)
- #7 Robby Gordon
* Jim Beam

That should be all of the competitive full time organizations. I will have a preview of 2009 and my predictions for both the season and the Daytona 500 up by tomorrow night.
Thanks for reading!
- DT