With Johnson winning again in the hills of Virginia, many people are ready to call this Chase over. I'm not, and according to NASCAR.Com neither is Johnson or his closest competitors. However, mathematically speaking Burton and Biffle are going to have to make up an average of 38 points a race against Johnson. It is possible, but highly unlikely, more or less if anyone other than Burton or Biffle even have a shred of hope left it's if Jimmie has trouble, and in the past few years, I've seen crazier things happen. It looks like Johnson will tie Yarborough's record after all. Once again, I'm not going to call this over until, at earliest, heading into Phoenix/after Texas.
Last week's race at Martinsville was fairly typical, it lead to a somewhat exciting finish with the same result we've seen as of late - a Hendrick car in victory lane, I can't say I expect that to change anytime soon, remember, they always seem to have an extra incentive for winning there since the plane tragedy -- it makes me wonder if they'd be even more dominant if Randy Dorton were still alive. Regardless, Knaus and crew had excellent pit stops and simply have put Jimmie in great cars week after week, now that they've finally figured out this new car.
History tells me though, that eventually this luck should run out, but as things are going, it may be a few years, we'll see; remember though, Jeff Gordon probably would've had more championships than 4 right now, but should haves, would haves, and could haves make no difference. So what does Atlanta look like?
First off GOOD NEWS -- According to NASCAR.com the tire issue we saw in the spring (incredibly hard tires, no handling, no passing) have been done away with and Goodyear has brought a softer compound that the drivers seem to be happier with.
True Contenders:
OK, True Contender:
Jimmie Johnson as much as I hate to say it, the likelihood of Johnson losing this championship is rather small, it's there, there is a possibility he will lose, but it grows more distant each week.
Fightin' Chance:
Jeff Burton: He's been through a lot in his career, he's able to keep his chin up and not worry about Johnson, he's hungry and is, in my opinion, long overdue for a championship, he will need Johnson to slip up just a bit to have any hope though.
Greg Biffle: He's been quietly hanging on this whole time, and I wont' count him out until he's mathematically not able to catch Johnson, he works wonders at Homestead and if he's within a hundred points or so coming into Ford Championship Weekend, he may be able to catch Johnson.
Carl Edwards: Fights always seem to mess competitors up. Edwards has been strong at the Hampton, Ga. track since his first start there, if he's going to make up points on Johnson it's going to be this week and next.
Waiting on others' mistakes:
Clint Bowyer and Kevin Harvick: These RCR teammates will most likely not be a factor in this year's chase from here on out. We'll have to wait another year, but I be live both of these guys are deserving of championships and will be champions one day.
Counting the days until Daytona:
Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Bush, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Gordon. I don't' see any of these guys really challenging for the championship this season so look forward to my season review and '09 preview over the off season. The only thing to expect from these guys is Jeff Gordon to win one before the end of the season, it will most likely come either this weekend at Atlanta or in two weeks at Phoenix.
Special note---Podcast versions of the season review and 2009 preview will be available as well. Both on iTunes or directly from dtsgarage.podbean.com
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Half way check point
If I do have any regular readers, I do apologize on the absence of analysis thus far throughout the Chase. Therefore I'll wrap up the entire first half of the Sprint Cup Chase in this one entry. I do have a copy of my original pre-season predictions (done before January Daytona Testing) so if you want a copy of all my predictions (which ended up being a fair ways off) send an email to DTsGarage@gmail.com
The Chase so far: Mostly I want to focus on the fact the Roush Powerhouse is back again, after seemingly taking two years off and having problems adjusting to the new car, they're on their game. There is a reason Greg Biffle was originally tabbed to take over for Mark Martin [who supposedly entered retirement way back in 2005]. From the first 3 races (New Hampshire, Dover and Kansas) I had a hunch there was going to be a flashback type of chase, back to the early 2000's I was expecting it to come down to Kevin Harvick and Greg Biffle. A clash as epic as they used to have as one of the most heated rivalries in recent memory (from any sereies).
Two notes on that, first of all, I don't think that's going to happen after Talladega and Lowe's. It seems though that Harvick is not destined to ever get along with the Roush drivers, as a new rivalry, for lack of a better term, seemed to have come about in the garage area in Charlotte (pictures available at ESPN.com)
As the Chase moves on, I don't expect much change. Jimmie Johnson will not win a 3rd title (this year) but I see it being a showdown between Johnson, Harvick and Burton. The Gibbs bunch won't resurface until mid-season of '09. I will for sure get an update after M'Ville but look for it to be Gordon, Johnson and Bowyer up towards the front of the pack today.
True Contenders:
Jimmie Johnson - He's not done yet, but I'm not sure if he has the magic he's had the last two season.
Jeff Burton - He's going to win a championship before he retires, this year or next are probably his two best bets
Greg Biffle - he has a chance to make up some ground at Atlanta, Texas and Miami, only problem is the guys in front of him are strong there too.
Fightin' Chance:
Carl Edwards - his chase is probably over, he's under too much stress (Banzai move at Kansas) and it always seems when someone gets in a large or much publicized altercation with another driver it puts a gimp in their season. (This will sound childish, but he started it)
Clint Bowyer - He didn't start the chase off as brilliantly as last season, but still has had good finish. Next year a Cherrios car may be leading the pack (especially if Gil Martin isn't his crew chief anymore)
Kevin Harvick - Barley got in this category. He has no DNFs and is consistent, he too will win a championship before he retires, but it most likely won't be this year. He's strong at the rest of the tracks so he may be able to make a charge.
Destiny Controlled Partially by others:
Jeff Gordon
Tony Stewart
only becasue I can't ever count these guys out.
Lookin' toward '09:
Kyle Bush - if I would've had more time to publish my (half-written) story, "bye-bye Bush" you'd know that I called his failure in the chase, two reasons primarily 1) he's not too great on any of the tracks and 2) everyone else was bound to catch up with him. Although, I'll be honset, I didn't expect him to do this poorly; let's see if '08 was a fluke, or if the M&M's team will be just as strong next year
Dale Earnhardt, Jr - He's had his adjustment year, he's one to keep an eye on for next season, still the most overrated driver in NASCAR
Matt Kenseth- He seems to be the token 'choker' of NASCAR's 'post-season' style of championship
Denny Hamlin- he said it several weeks ago, they're done ( I think that was prechase, but what a fortune teller). I'll be the one to say it. Denny Hamlin will most likely never be a champion. He'll contend, but it will be a series of events that will lead to that. In my most honest opinion, his rookie season was a fluke. He can drive, but he's not championship caliber, at least, not in my mind and/or at this time.
The Chase so far: Mostly I want to focus on the fact the Roush Powerhouse is back again, after seemingly taking two years off and having problems adjusting to the new car, they're on their game. There is a reason Greg Biffle was originally tabbed to take over for Mark Martin [who supposedly entered retirement way back in 2005]. From the first 3 races (New Hampshire, Dover and Kansas) I had a hunch there was going to be a flashback type of chase, back to the early 2000's I was expecting it to come down to Kevin Harvick and Greg Biffle. A clash as epic as they used to have as one of the most heated rivalries in recent memory (from any sereies).
Two notes on that, first of all, I don't think that's going to happen after Talladega and Lowe's. It seems though that Harvick is not destined to ever get along with the Roush drivers, as a new rivalry, for lack of a better term, seemed to have come about in the garage area in Charlotte (pictures available at ESPN.com)
As the Chase moves on, I don't expect much change. Jimmie Johnson will not win a 3rd title (this year) but I see it being a showdown between Johnson, Harvick and Burton. The Gibbs bunch won't resurface until mid-season of '09. I will for sure get an update after M'Ville but look for it to be Gordon, Johnson and Bowyer up towards the front of the pack today.
True Contenders:
Jimmie Johnson - He's not done yet, but I'm not sure if he has the magic he's had the last two season.
Jeff Burton - He's going to win a championship before he retires, this year or next are probably his two best bets
Greg Biffle - he has a chance to make up some ground at Atlanta, Texas and Miami, only problem is the guys in front of him are strong there too.
Fightin' Chance:
Carl Edwards - his chase is probably over, he's under too much stress (Banzai move at Kansas) and it always seems when someone gets in a large or much publicized altercation with another driver it puts a gimp in their season. (This will sound childish, but he started it)
Clint Bowyer - He didn't start the chase off as brilliantly as last season, but still has had good finish. Next year a Cherrios car may be leading the pack (especially if Gil Martin isn't his crew chief anymore)
Kevin Harvick - Barley got in this category. He has no DNFs and is consistent, he too will win a championship before he retires, but it most likely won't be this year. He's strong at the rest of the tracks so he may be able to make a charge.
Destiny Controlled Partially by others:
Jeff Gordon
Tony Stewart
only becasue I can't ever count these guys out.
Lookin' toward '09:
Kyle Bush - if I would've had more time to publish my (half-written) story, "bye-bye Bush" you'd know that I called his failure in the chase, two reasons primarily 1) he's not too great on any of the tracks and 2) everyone else was bound to catch up with him. Although, I'll be honset, I didn't expect him to do this poorly; let's see if '08 was a fluke, or if the M&M's team will be just as strong next year
Dale Earnhardt, Jr - He's had his adjustment year, he's one to keep an eye on for next season, still the most overrated driver in NASCAR
Matt Kenseth- He seems to be the token 'choker' of NASCAR's 'post-season' style of championship
Denny Hamlin- he said it several weeks ago, they're done ( I think that was prechase, but what a fortune teller). I'll be the one to say it. Denny Hamlin will most likely never be a champion. He'll contend, but it will be a series of events that will lead to that. In my most honest opinion, his rookie season was a fluke. He can drive, but he's not championship caliber, at least, not in my mind and/or at this time.
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