Martinsville Review and Atlanta Preview

With Johnson winning again in the hills of Virginia, many people are ready to call this Chase over. I'm not, and according to NASCAR.Com neither is Johnson or his closest competitors. However, mathematically speaking Burton and Biffle are going to have to make up an average of 38 points a race against Johnson. It is possible, but highly unlikely, more or less if anyone other than Burton or Biffle even have a shred of hope left it's if Jimmie has trouble, and in the past few years, I've seen crazier things happen. It looks like Johnson will tie Yarborough's record after all. Once again, I'm not going to call this over until, at earliest, heading into Phoenix/after Texas.
Last week's race at Martinsville was fairly typical, it lead to a somewhat exciting finish with the same result we've seen as of late - a Hendrick car in victory lane, I can't say I expect that to change anytime soon, remember, they always seem to have an extra incentive for winning there since the plane tragedy -- it makes me wonder if they'd be even more dominant if Randy Dorton were still alive. Regardless, Knaus and crew had excellent pit stops and simply have put Jimmie in great cars week after week, now that they've finally figured out this new car.
History tells me though, that eventually this luck should run out, but as things are going, it may be a few years, we'll see; remember though, Jeff Gordon probably would've had more championships than 4 right now, but should haves, would haves, and could haves make no difference. So what does Atlanta look like?
First off GOOD NEWS -- According to NASCAR.com the tire issue we saw in the spring (incredibly hard tires, no handling, no passing) have been done away with and Goodyear has brought a softer compound that the drivers seem to be happier with.

True Contenders:
OK, True Contender:
Jimmie Johnson as much as I hate to say it, the likelihood of Johnson losing this championship is rather small, it's there, there is a possibility he will lose, but it grows more distant each week.

Fightin' Chance:
Jeff Burton: He's been through a lot in his career, he's able to keep his chin up and not worry about Johnson, he's hungry and is, in my opinion, long overdue for a championship, he will need Johnson to slip up just a bit to have any hope though.
Greg Biffle: He's been quietly hanging on this whole time, and I wont' count him out until he's mathematically not able to catch Johnson, he works wonders at Homestead and if he's within a hundred points or so coming into Ford Championship Weekend, he may be able to catch Johnson.
Carl Edwards: Fights always seem to mess competitors up. Edwards has been strong at the Hampton, Ga. track since his first start there, if he's going to make up points on Johnson it's going to be this week and next.

Waiting on others' mistakes:
Clint Bowyer and Kevin Harvick: These RCR teammates will most likely not be a factor in this year's chase from here on out. We'll have to wait another year, but I be live both of these guys are deserving of championships and will be champions one day.

Counting the days until Daytona:
Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Bush, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Gordon. I don't' see any of these guys really challenging for the championship this season so look forward to my season review and '09 preview over the off season. The only thing to expect from these guys is Jeff Gordon to win one before the end of the season, it will most likely come either this weekend at Atlanta or in two weeks at Phoenix.

Special note---Podcast versions of the season review and 2009 preview will be available as well. Both on iTunes or directly from dtsgarage.podbean.com

Preview: Shaprie 500 In Bristol, Tenn.

Last year, the fall race at Bristol was sub-par at best. I think this year may be another story, and sure hope that it is. Bristol's long-time motto is "racing the way it oughta be" and it was that way, until either A) the new car package made passing easier or B) the progressive banking and widening of the track or even C) both of those. Most likely it's more of the "C". Regardless, I think this year, after watching the truck race, this should be a fun one, maybe not quite as temper-flaring as it used to be, but nevertheless a good race. Only time will tell and I think we'll get a glimpse of that when the Nationwide Series gets to rolling here in the next few hours.

My Top Picks for Bristol:
1)RCR it's going to be RCR on top again with the sweep, Jeff Burton can lock a chase spot with a win tomorrow, Harvick and Bowyer really need to step it up and get solid top-5's, which between Bristol and Richmond, should be no problem
2)RCR
3)RCR
4)Kyle Busch-We haven't seen the last of him...yet, he'll be strong at least up until the chase
5)Kurt Busch- Maybe he can return Penske to victory lane, the blue Duce has always been one to watch at BMS

Not what they needed:
1) David Ragan- I just watched him crash in Qualifying, I think after this weekend, his chase hopes will be pretty much dashed unless he surprises everyone again and other people fall victim to bad luck
2) Denny Hamlin, although he's usually fairly good on the short track, I don't see him taking the checkered at Britsol, he's disheartened and that's the fastest way to fall out of the chase
3)Kasey Kahne with only one top 5 at Bristol in his career, he's only going to continue to suffer and tighten the chase berth bubble up

Long Shots (for the win):
1)David Ragan, He's been strong recently and has a strong team behind him
2)Matt Kenseth, even with two wins at the eastern Tenessee track, I still don't think he's aggressive enough to contend for a win, it depends on where he qualifies
3) Greg Biffle, he's hungry for a win, usually runs decent at BMS but has never won there

all images used with permission